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Is the Weekend More Profitable Time to Trade?

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Have you ever wondered what holding a forex position over a weekend does to your return profile.

Major news events often occur over the weekend when markets are closed. And this can cause big movements to occur when the markets reopen, and with the higher leverage associated with forex trading, you can understand how this translates into volatility.

While most traders do majority of their trading during weekdays, there are some who want to take advantage of high-impact events that sometime occur on weekends. Also, there are some traders who only have time to trade or set up their trading for the week during weekends.

Whatever your trading style or trading time frame, it is a fact that there are trading opportunities throughout the week. After all the forex market is one of the most popular among traders because of its accessibility – i.e. it is open 24-hours a day 5-days a week as it follows the sun in opening and closing at various financial centres around the globe.

Weekend vs weekday trading

To find out if the weekend is more profitable time to trade than weekdays, we did some analysis of trading data over weekends and weekdays.

We did the following analysis:

  • Amount of trades: 2,744,769
  • Amount of weekend trades: 207,192

And here’s what we found out:

Probability of return on investment around weekends > 0% = 52.13%
Probability of return on investment NOT around weekends > 0% = 52.19%

ROI around weekends = 0.020%
STD{ROI around weekends} = 1.20%
ROI not around weekends = 0.004%
STD{ROI not around weekends} = 0.26%

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Conclusion

From the stats you can see that the probability of a profitable trade over the weekend or not is basically the same. The return on investment (ROI) for trading over the weekend is greater than not trading over a weekend. However, there is also more volatility. The bottom line is the risk adjusted returns are essentially the same.

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